MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

UPDATE 12:15 pm 3/13 storm threat

Discussion started by cwwright 4 years ago

Long range global models continue to hint at a possible winter type event to impact the region next week.

 

GFS

 

EURO

 

 

The GFS and Euro seem to now want to develop a storm close to the coastline. These models are starting to latch on to the fact that there is a lack of Greenland blocking(negative NAO) which is allowing for the development of a weak southeast ridge. With the storm currently modeled to be close to the coast snow will be linited to the interior with coastal areas being a cold rain. Shown below is the critical thickness which is a good indicator for snow. You can see that only the inland areas are below the critical thickness threshold (below 5400 meters is snow).

108

 

 

Precipitation amounts for this storm are close to an inch for the entire region.

126

 

 

With the inland areas staying below freezing early indications show that 6-10 inches could accumulate.

 

** Stay tuned for updates regarding this storm**

 

 

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cwwright
cwwright
Very slim weather 101. For the back end snows it all depends on if there is moisture left, and how quickly the cold air comes in behind the storm.
4 years ago
weather101
weather101
What is the possibility at this point of a 4+ inch snowstorm in Philly? I think Philly could get a little snow on the back end of this system.
4 years ago
cwwright
cwwright
Appreciate the positive feedback guys! Thanks.
4 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Hey Chris - great stuff. I am not too worried about the NAO. It doesn't have to be perfect as we've seen all year. Just close enough to 0 to slow things down. The outlooks for the signals have been wild all year - sometimes huge changes in only a matter of a couple of days. So below is the current view I use for a "gauge". I'm good with this right now. Hopefully it sinks a little more - but hopefully it doesn't shoot up!

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png
4 years ago
Flyersguy8
Flyersguy8
Thanks for the insight. Very easy to understand. Site is awesome
4 years ago

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