New Haven had some interesting weather the last 12 months and with the expected arrival of El Nino may sit smack dab in the middle of severe weather and snowstorms this winter. The Jet Stream and El Nino will play a major roll on the winter season and both will make for some extreme weather from week to week.
HOW EL NINO WORKS
After a long 4-year absence of El Nino we here at Liveweatherblogs.com are very confident we are heading into a weak to moderate El Nino. A weak to moderate El Nino for the area means a variety of winter weather. We will see wild swings in temperatures throughout the winter.
We have been in a neutral pattern since May of 2012 and before that we were in a La Nina period from June 2010 to April of 2012. The odds are in favor of an El Nino this winter and the chart below indicates that it will start over spring and summer.
So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a moderate to maybe strong event.
CURRENT EL NINO CHANCES
So we are thinking a MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO with above average snowfall this winter. Most of the snow will come later in the winter around February.
The biggest factor is El Nino followed by the track of the Southern Jet Stream. This track will decide on the ice vs. snow vs. rain, so be ready for some of everything!
We'll get a few spring-like days this winter esp. the first half of the winter. Expect the unexpected in this upcoming El Nino winter. Mild and sunny one week and cold and raw the next. If you want variety in your winter weather this is the winter to follow. The winter will start warmer and drier than normal and end on the colder, snowier side in February and March.
THIS WINTER 27.3"
AVERAGE SNOWFALL 25.1"
TEMPS...MILD START COLDER FINISH
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