MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Monday Madness (Tornadoes to I-95?) Check out the NEW INFO

Discussion started by robweather 3 years ago

Some of the early parameters suggest a chance of tornadoes Tuesday and Wednesday along the big cities of I-95. Some of the ingredients include:

 

--Lifting of air to create large thunderstorms

--Unstable atmosphere on the increas

--Rotation off the jet stream to cause a spin in the storms

--Rare colder airmass aloft will create ideal conditions for severe storms

 

HOW TORNADOES FORM 

CLICK HERE FOR DEAN'S SEVERE OUTLOOK VA TO ME

 

From the Storms Prediction Center

   NJ/PA/NY AND NRN DELMARVA AREAS...
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST COMPLEXITIES ONLY A BROAD ZONE OF RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES CAN BE DEPICTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. THE LEADING FRONT WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND LIKELY ONGOING STORMS...THAT SHOULD SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST INTO A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND FORCING AS DEPICTED IN BOTH NAM AND PARALLEL NAM...AS WELL AS GFS AND ECMWF...WOULD SUPPORT A FEW TO SEVERAL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.

MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK REGION

Screen Shot 2014-07-13 at 11.33.36 AM



MONDAY JULY 14, 2014 (SEVERE WEATHER)

(Philadelphia)
LIFTING INDEX: -4.2 (close enough for severe weather)
SWEAT INDEX: 356 (severe t-storms likely 400 for tornadoes)
SHOWALTER: -1.6 (this is close enough for severe weather)
CAPE LEVELS: 2158 (We have enough here but 3000 is tornadic)

The overall thinking for Monday is "MARGINAL" for severe weather and most wouldbe Philadelphia and South. Baltimore and DC have a higher look for severe weather check out the numbers below:

(Baltimore-DC Metro Combo)
LIFTIING INDEX: -4.7 to -4.5
SWEAT INDEX: +340 to 331
SHOWALTER: -1.6 to -1.8
CAPE LEVELS: 2097 to 2044

NYC Metro does not have as many deep parameters for severe weather on Monday with lower levels and dynamics vs. PHL BWI DCA. We'll keep this area in a very slight risk for Monday

(New York City)
LIFTIING INDEX: -4.1
SWEAT INDEX: +348
SHOWALTER: -1.3
CAPE LEVELS: 1251

OVERALL THINKING ON MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER...

The area to watch will be areas from Richmond to Philadelphia and areas North and West of that region with severe weather possible from 3pm to 9pm. Damaging winds and hail will be the biggest problem with this potential line of storms.
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TUESDAY JULY 15, 2014 (SEVERE WEATHER)

(Philadelphia)
LIFTING INDEX: -4.9 (enough for severe weather)
SWEAT INDEX: 286 (severe t-storms marginal you need 300+)
SHOWALTER: -0.9 (this is close enough)
CAPE LEVELS: 1660 (Marginal for severe weather)

The overall thinking for Monday is "MARGINAL" for severe weather and most would be Philadelphia and areas to the South and East. The beaches have to be watched. Baltimore and DC Metro are in the marginal zone.

(Baltimore-DC Metro Combo)

LIFTIING INDEX: -4.4 to -4.4
SWEAT INDEX:  +283 to +290
SHOWALTER:    -0.5 to -0.8
CAPE LEVELS:  1728 to 1871

NYC Metro parameters are much lower on Tuesday as indicated below so we'll take the risk out in North Jersey and NYC.

(New York City) (risk for severe weather is very low)
LIFTIING INDEX: -1.0
SWEAT INDEX:   +309
SHOWALTER:     -1.3
CAPE LEVELS:   +918

OVERALL THINKING ON TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER...

The area may shift to the Lower Delmarva region and to the beaches on Tuesday as the frontal boundary pushes through the region.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL

(1-10 SCALE)

 

 

Severe Weather Philly Metro (7)

Tornadoes Philly Metro (3)

Flooding Philly Metro (4)

Wind Damage Philly Metro (5)

 

 

Severe Weather BWI-DC (8)

Tornadoes BWI-DC (3)

Flooding BWI-DC (4)

Wind Damage BWI-DC (6)

 

 

Severe Weather NYC NNJ (5)

Tornadoes NYC NNJ (1)

Flooding NYC NNJ (2)

Wind Damage NYC NNJ (2)

---------------------------------------

 

TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL

(1-10 SCALE)

 

Severe Weather Philly Metro (5)

Tornadoes Philly Metro (2)

Flooding Philly Metro (2)

Wind Damage Philly Metro (3)

 

 

Severe Weather BWI-DC (6

Tornadoes BWI-DC (2)

Flooding BWI-DC (2)

Wind Damage BWI-DC (4)

 

 

Severe Weather NYC NNJ (2)

Tornadoes NYC NNJ (1)

Flooding NYC NNJ (1)

Wind Damage NYC NNJ (1)

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