Massachusetts Winter Outlook 2014-2015 (Boston, Worcester, Springfield, Lowell, Brockton, Lynn

Discussion started by robweather 4 years ago

Massachusetts had a HUGE winter during 2013-2014 and depending on the exact track of El Nino and the Southern Jet Stream this could be another big one for the winter of 2014-2015. Several factors go into our forecast with the main one the size and power of El Nino. Here are the factors carving out the winter ahead.

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 5 were weak El Nino's, 8 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a moderate event. The new info below shows the world models leaning in that direction at this point.

 

EL NINO UPDATE 2014

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.12.47 PM

 

WHICH ANALOG YEARS DO WE SEE THAT

LOOK LIKE THE 2014-15 WINTER?

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.41.24 PM

 

factors

 

STJ-Sub Tropical Jet steers the storm track for Low pressure systems

AO-Arctic Oscillation is the open and closed door for cold weather, also the polar Vortex

Click here for the daily AO

NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation is the Pedulum of storm tracks and cold air across the USA

Click here for the daily NAO

PNA-Pacific North American Connection is the steering pattern for storms from Alaska & the West

Click here for the daily PNA

 

Cape Cod and Islands

Snw DysPlaceAvg SnwThis Winter
11.7 Chatham 28.9   30.0"
  9.7 Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard 23.6   25.4"
  6.1 Hyannis 15.6   17.3"

 

Eastern Massachusetts

Snw DysPlaceAvg. SnwThis Winter
22.4 Boston 43.8 44.0"
14.3 East Wareham 36.1   38.2"
29.1 Great Blue Hill, Milton 62.7 64.3"
18.9 Haverhill 48.6 50.4"
25.0 Hingham 47.1 49.4"
15.7 Marblehead 40.8 43.7"
14.7 New Bedford 33.2   35.8"
21.9 Newburyport 53.7  55.0"
13.1 Plymouth 36.2   38.4"
10.3 Taunton 28.0   30.4"

 

Central Massachusetts

Snw DysPlaceAvg. SnwThis Winter
16.6 Amherst 36.9 38.3"
23.0 Barre Falls Reservoir Dam 54.7 55.2"
14.5 Buffumville Lake 40.9 41.9"
23.1 East Brimfield Lake 59.0 61.2"
20.3 Lowell 51.9 54.8"
20.3 Tully Lake 49.5 53.2"
31.7 Worcester 64.1 68.3"

 

Western Massachusetts

Snw DysPlaceAvg. SnwThis Winter
22.1 Great Barrington 61.0 63.0"
26.6 Lanesboro 62.1 65.4"
25.7 West Otis 53.6 55.4"
52.6 Worthington 79.7 80.5"

 

Temps start off above normal in December and near Normal in February & March

 

CITY WINTER OUTLOOKS (200 CITIES)

THE LATEST EL NINO WATCH 2014

YOUR  SUMMER OUTLOOK 2014


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