Connecticut Winter Outlook 2014-2015 Hartford Bridgeport New Haven Stamford Waterbury Norwalk Danbury

Discussion started by robweather 4 years ago

Connecticut had a HUGE winter during 2013-2014 and depending on the exact track of El Nino and the Southern Jet Stream this could be another big one for the winter of 2014-2015. Several factors go into our forecast with the main one the size and power of El Nino. Here are the factors carving out the winter ahead.

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 5 were weak El Nino's, 8 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a moderate event. The new info below shows the world models leaning in that direction at this point.

 

EL NINO UPDATE 2014

el nino

 

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.12.47 PM

 

 OTHER WEATHER BLOGS TO FOLLOW

CITY WINTER OUTLOOKS (200 CITIES)

DISASTER RISK FOR CONNECTICUT

THE LATEST EL NINO WATCH 2014

YOUR  SUMMER OUTLOOK 2014

 

 

WHICH ANALOG YEARS DO WE SEE THAT

LOOK LIKE THE 2014-15 WINTER?

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.41.24 PM

 

factors

 

STJ-Sub Tropical Jet steers the storm track for Low pressure systems

AO-Arctic Oscillation is the open and closed door for cold weather, also the polar Vortex

Click here for the daily AO

NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation is the Pedulum of storm tracks and cold air across the USA

Click here for the daily NAO

PNA-Pacific North American Connection is the steering pattern for storms from Alaska & the West

Click here for the daily PNA

 

Coastal Connecticut

Snw DysPlaceAvg SnwThis Winter
15.7 Bridgeport 28.1   33.2"
10.2 Groton 23.2   30.3"
  9.7 Norwich 28.0   34.1"
15.7 Stamford 31.2  35.8"

Inland Connecticut

Snw DysPlaceAvg SnwThis Winter
  8.5 Burlington 31.3   37.6"
23.7 Danbury 45.3 50.4"
20.1 Hartford 40.5 43.2"
12.3 Mansfield Hollow Lake 30.2  35.7"
14.4 Middletown 35.6  43.5"
40.1 Norfolk 78.4  82.3"
13.6 West Thompson Lake 36.8  43.2"
23.0 Woodbury 43.3 50.0"

December will be drier and mild but the real winter comes in Jan & Feb. Expect a few good snowstorms w/ a blizzard in Feb. Temps near normal for Jan & Feb, below normal in March. 

 

 OTHER WEATHER BLOGS TO FOLLOW

CITY WINTER OUTLOOKS (200 CITIES)

DISASTER RISK FOR CONNECTICUT

THE LATEST EL NINO WATCH 2014

YOUR  SUMMER OUTLOOK 2014

 

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