UPDATE AUGUST 23, 2014
So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters in SE Mass. and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a weak to moderate event.
Snowiest Winter in Plymouth Co. 106.5" 1995-1996
Least snow in a Pymouth Co. Winter 9.0" 1936-1937
Average Snowfall in Plymouth Co. 43.0"
CHANCE OF EL NINO?
|3 Month period||La Niña||Neutral||El Niño|
WHEN IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR EL NINO?
WHAT TYPE OF EL NINO?
THE ODDS OF A WEAK EL NINO?
Ocean temps are always a factor for the rain/snow line in and around SE Mass. and with a near to even slightly above normal ocean temperature outcome we'll see the rain/snow push further west than last winter. A few storms will push that line as far west as central Mass and we predict more than 3 rain events this winter.
Other factors into our forecast are the usual NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The STJ or Sub Tropical Jet along with the Arctic Oscillation and PNA or Pacific North American Teleconnection.
The Sub Tropical Jet or Southern Jet will have a huge impact on the weather along the Atlantic Coast and when combined with strong El Nino waves from the West Coast the chances are greater than 72% of a nor'easter over 6" of snow this winter. It's the nor'easter type of storms that will push the seasonal average to 15% above normal.
Plymouth Co. will see temperatures near to above average and don't be surprised to see a few spring-like days even in January. Expect the unexpected this winter with a wild swing in temps and 1-2 significant Nor'easters. The best chance of a Nor'easter will be in February and the warmest month with above normal temperatures will be in December.
If you like snow this is a winter of stop and go snow. We may see a snowy week or two but we'll also see several weeks with no snow at all. The biggest influence on Boston this winter will be El Nino and the path of the Southern Jet Stream.
This will not be like last winter, we'll get a few spring-like days to hit your favorite Boston restaurant outdoors in January, yeah January. Expect the unexpected in this upcoming El Nino winter. Mild and sunny one week and cold and snowy the next. If you want variety in your winter weather this is the winter to follow. The winter will start warmer and drier than normal and end on the colder, snowier side in February and March.
Avg. Snowfall in is 43.0"
Winter 2014-2015: 42.0"
Temperatures will average near normal after a
mild start & cold finish to the winter of 2014-2015