Cape Cod Winter Outlook 2014-2015 (Barnstable, Provincetown, Sandwich, Hyannis, Chatham)

Discussion started by robweather 3 years ago

UPDATE AUGUST 26, 2014

 

Rob Guarino's Bio

(12 awards for Accuracy & Forecasting)

 

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters in Cape Cod and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a weak to moderate event.

 

____________________________________________________________________

CHANCE OF EL NINO?

CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast Probabilities  August 22, 2014

3 Month periodLa NiñaNeutralEl Niño
ASO 2014 ~0% 58% 42%
SON 2014 ~0% 44% 56%
OND 2014 ~0% 36% 64%
NDJ 2014 ~0% 30% 70%
DJF 2014 ~0% 27% 73%
JFM 2015 ~0% 32% 68%
FMA 2015 1% 37% 62%
MAM 2015 2% 43% 55%
AMJ 2015 4% 45% 51%

 WHEN IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR EL NINO?

TINY 73 

 WHAT TYPE OF EL NINO?

TINY EL NINO GRAPH

THE ODDS OF A WEAK EL NINO?

TINY EL NINO WEAK ODDS

Ocean temps are always a factor for the rain/snow line in and around SE Mass. and with a near to even slightly above normal ocean temperature outcome we'll see the rain/snow push further west than last winter. A few storms will push that line as far west as central Mass and we predict more than 3 rain events this winter.

Other factors into our forecast are the usual NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The STJ or Sub Tropical Jet along with the Arctic Oscillation and PNA or Pacific North American Teleconnection.

The Sub Tropical Jet or Southern Jet will have a huge impact on the weather along the Atlantic Coast and when combined with strong El Nino waves from the West Coast the chances are greater than 72% of a nor'easter over 6" of snow this winter. It's the nor'easter type of storms that will push the seasonal average to 15% above normal.

Plymouth Co. will see temperatures near to above average and don't be surprised to see a few spring-like days even in January. Expect the unexpected this winter with a wild swing in temps and 1-2 significant Nor'easters. The best chance of a Nor'easter will be in February and the warmest month with above normal temperatures will be in December.

If you like snow this is a winter of stop and go snow. We may see a snowy week or two but we'll also see several weeks with no snow at all. The biggest influence on Boston this winter will be El Nino and the path of the Southern Jet Stream.

Screen Shot 2014-04-03 at 5.08.15 PM

Our Winter Summary for Cape Cod town...

This will not be like last winter, we'll get a few spring-like days to hit your favorite Cape Cod restaurant outdoors in January, yeah January. Expect the unexpected in this upcoming El Nino winter. Mild and sunny one week and cold and snowy the next. If you want variety in your winter weather this is the winter to follow. The winter will start warmer and drier than normal and end on the colder, snowier side in February and March. 

 

Cape Cod and Islands

Snow DaysPlaceAvg SnowThis Winter
11.7 Chatham 28.9"   23.2"
  9.7 Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard 23.6"   18.5"
  6.1 Hyannis 15.6"   12.3"                                               

Temperatures will average near normal after a

mild start & cold finish to the winter of 2014-2015

_________________________________________________

YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK

200 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, Extreme Winter Weather

___________________________________________________

EL NINO ECONOMIC IMPACT ON YOU!

State breakdown on Gas Prices, Heating Bills, Groceries

_____________________________________________

YOUR STATE WINTER OUTLOOK

Many smaller cities are in this outlook, Snow Days, Temps

_____________________________________________

SKI AREA WINTER OUTLOOKS

 300 Ski areas for Snowfall, Temps by Month, El Nino Snow Forecast

___________________________________________________

EL NINO WATCH UPDATE 2014-2015

Is this El Nino a Fake? The chances have dropped in August

__________________________________________________

DISASTER RISK IS UP FOR THE U.S.A !

Check out the risk for your town and state

_____________________________________________________

  1. twitter round register finger facebook round      

    Register on our website to get Updates & Alerts

  2.  Follow us on Twitter and Facebook 
  3. It takes about 10 seconds to sign-up.

    Thanks for the support!

You need to be a member of this group before you can participate in this blog.

Related Blogs

Powered by JomSocial

 EXTREME WINTER WEATHER