But after reaching phase 1, then it goes to COD. So the cold pattern doesn't last long after that. There is no evidence to show that there will be blocking earlier this winter. -NAO trend has ended already since El Niño weakened and is now in weak La Niña. The pattern change was supposed to happen in mid-November and is clearly not going to happen. Models will tease and will keep pushing back for a cold pattern in the long range until January which likely occurs. Nothing is accurate going past 7 days. So I have a hard time believing on this fast start to the winter. Anyone predicting cold December is hyping up like JB at weatherbell who just changes thoughts constantly especially with December being cold.
Hey Paul, Thanks a lot for the long range forecast, and for the detailed explanation! I love reading about this stuff, especially since I'm right in the affected area, on the Jersey Cape. So, I'd assume that a warm dry summer will mean clearer skys overall? This forecast bodes well for power generation from the solar panels on my roof. Is there any combination circumstances that would indicate a COOLER dryer summer? I seem to remember some pretty hot summers in the not too distant past (2010 could be the one I have in mind) in which I almost melted on several occasions. And the older I get, the less fun the heat is. Thanks again, great post!