Some of you are starting to notice this rinse and repeat pattern across the East Coast and Ohio Valley and may be starting to wonder...What's up with that?
The pattern this summer has been a soggy one and most of the reason has been pretty simple...trough in the east, ridge in the west combined with a sliding Bermuda High out over the Atlantic Ocean.
The dots on the map along the east coast show where a repeated trough has been developing and sparking storms. We have also seen a few weak cold front but once you embed those in with the over all long wave trough you get bigger storms with more rainfall.
LOW IN EAST BRINGS COLD ALOFT...HIGH IN WEST BIG HEAT
This pattern will happen for a few days in the summer but not typically a few weeks like we have seen the last 6 weeks. The west is now set for record heat this weekend and into next week as they enter the hottest time of the year along with the longest days of the year. The east will see more "rinse and repeat" weather as the trough continues to dig in the east.
The pattern will sit and spin for all of July with a few hot periods but overall it's a muggy and wet month for most areas in the Northeast, Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley.
Expect above average rainfall in July with at or below average temps. The daily highs will be cooler than normal most days but the lows at night will be above normal so the average will close to even split as far as average temps for July.
Temps in many East Coast big cities has not dipped below 70 degree the past 4 weeks this is the first time in history this has happen since keeping weather records back to 1874.
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK FOR
WEATHER EXTREMES UPDATES
REGISTER ON OUR WEBSITE FOR MONTHLY, SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
ALERTS AND BREAKING WEATHER. IT TAKES ALL OF 10 SECONDS
By my post below, I meant the current pattern as of today, which upper wind/jet wise is different from the one depicted in the graphic above. Though, I suspect that it will not be long before that type of set-up returns, at least for a while. That being said, a westward shift in what is depicted above, is also a major problem for the U.S in terms of being struck by a tropical cyclone.
This pattern is extremely dangerous for the east coast and northern and eastern Gulf coast in terms of being struck by a tropical cyclone. Patterns like this tend to entrench themselves into changing little for long periods of time. Furthermore, rainy Junes, (and ours was the rainiest in history), usually lead to the following months to be rainy. I believe, as I said back in June, that we will see at least one additional Summer month that is incredibly rainy, breaking or nearly breaking a record.
Well Victor, I was originally going to forecast abnormally high temperature anomalies in the East (in the late August-September time-frame), until June kept going and going the way that it started off. Between drought feedback causing the ridge in the West to stall in place, more or less, and likely become more and more entrenched I'm backing off of that some, especially due to the fact that if the super-saturated ground in our region doesn't dry out significantly, it would be more of a very warm/humid situation. (Another of my run-on sentences). Now if a hurricane rides up Gulf of California, as so many have before and a large tropical cyclone (TS or hurricane moves E to W through Texas, then all bet's are off as the ridge would be displaced a little, at the very least). There's much, much more that could reverse my backing off of what I was going to forecast; AAM, poleward heat flux, solar..... Lastly, abnormally wet Junes in our region have featured the following months to also be above average most of the time, as I believe has been pointed out. I, however, believe that we will see at least one more extremely rainy month this Summer.
Another thing to consider is drought feedback causing the ridge in the West to remain in place, more or less, for the next several weeks. Rob's forecast for July looks good as it has the backing of the GFS, ECMWF and analogs.
I believe that we will see at least one additional month this Summer that is very rainy. I will be writing something soon with regards to the hurricane season and my thoughts on how things will start to play out.
Not so much you, Rob, although you may have been on board. I was reading a bunch of stuff from the Climate Prediction Center and they were all over a very hot summer. I still think they are showing graphics for above normal temps, as well as above normal precip. That just doesn't jive.
After I posted my comment my brain finally woke up lol and realized it was DE. We have just had so much rain, too! Our yard has not been dry for several weeks. But I should be happy all the rain is making the temps lower. Good and Bad in all things, hey?
I have never seen so much rain over a long period of time! And I ain't young lol I am wondering if that is Wilmington, NORTH CAROLINA they have listed with all the other cities there?? It seems like this whole year except for cold days has been nothing but rain every since we started having outside sales. I am beginning to feel like we could hire out to areas lacking rain and start outside sales and it would bring rain for at least several weeks. LOL Just kidding!